The resilient society

Intro

The Resilient Society

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Implementing a Social Contract

Long-Run Forces and Tensions

Global Resilience

Part I: Resilience and Society

1. Resilience and Its Cousins

A Definition of Resilience

Robustness and Redundancies

Resilience and Sustainability

Growth with Resilience

2. Resilience and the Social Contract

Externalities and the Social Contract

Insurance and the Social Contract

Approaches to Implementing a Social Contract

Implementation through Social Norms and Conventions

Implementation through the Government

Implementation through Markets

A Responsive Social Contract for Resilience

Part II: Containing the Shock: The Case of Covid-19

3. Behavioural Responses to Waves and Resilience Illusions

SIR Models with Behavioral Response

Tale 1: Covid-19 Fear

Tale 2: Covid Fatigue and the Resilience Illusion

Tale 3: The Last Covid-19 Mile

Regional Differences

4. Information, Testing and Tracing

General Lockdowns versus Targeted Lockdowns

Types of Information for Targeted Lockdowns

Tracing, Efficient Testing, and Targeted Enforcement

Privacy and Stigma

5. Communication: Managing People's Worries

Fostering a Sense of Community

The Role of Credibility in Communication

Gaining Credibility By Offering the Counterfactual

Vision and Narratives

6. The Role of Vaccines in Designing a New Normal

The Cost-Benefit of Vaccines

Vaccine Development: Redundancies, Diversification, and Resilience

Part III: Macroeconomic Resilience

7. Innovation Boosts Long-Lasting Growth

Speeding Up Preexisting Trends

Principles of Innovation: Cannibalization and QWERTY

Shaking off Regulatory Shackles

Examples of Innovation

8. Scarring

Shifts in Optimism, Preference and Risk Attitude

Labor Scarring

Firm Scarring

9. The Financial Market Whipsaw: Central Banks as Guardians of Financial Resilience

The Stock Market and Large Firms: K-Recession

Debt Markets

10. High Government Debt and Low Interest Rates

Enhancing Resilience with Fiscal Stimulus

High Public Debt

Why Are Interest Rates So Low?

Safe Asset Status of Government Bonds

High Debt and Vulnerability to Interest Rate Spikes

Additional Implicit Government Debt

11. The ""Inflation Whipsaw

The Infation Whipsaw: A Dynamic Perspective

Short-Term Effects

Central Banks and Unconventional Monetary Policy

Long-Term Effects

Monetary, Fiscal, and Financial Dominance

Redistributive Monetary Policy

12. Inequality

Inequality in Individual Resilience

Different Forms of Inequality

Inequality and the Resilience of the Social Contract

Outlook and Lessons from History

Part IV: Global Resilience

13. Resilience Challenges of Emerging Economies

How Poverty and Middle-Income Traps Inhibit Resilience

Health Resilience

Resilience through Fiscal Policy Space